Frozen pre-match forecast · #44382
Real Avilés VS Lugo
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 23 Sep 2026 · 07:39 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 02 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 36.99%
- Draw
- 28.01%
- Away
- 35.00%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.6378
- Log loss
- 1.0498
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v2
- Captured at
- 23 Sep 2026 · 07:39 UTC
- SHA-256
- bde9b78676a71534e02951522b98812f820f54f1cc39373f2642d12f029df0e8
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.