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Frozen pre-match forecast · #42565

Musa VS NJS

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 07:37 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
48.73%
Draw
22.61%
Away
28.65%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.3960
Log loss
0.7188

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v2
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 07:37 UTC
SHA-256
10f52be74cb20adea134685b4f485cc6eabfaf0fc9173e96459dfa86f1f3250a

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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