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Frozen pre-match forecast · #41830

Doneztebe FT VS Huarte

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 07:37 UTC
Match kickoff
25 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
54.07%
Draw
24.68%
Away
21.25%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.9048
Log loss
1.3992

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v2
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 07:37 UTC
SHA-256
d11280cc507f25e3ad4c86d2300b12e52a31bab0aa0ab2adabb6305ad74c6c6c

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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