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Frozen pre-match forecast · #39094

Tulevik VS Tallinna Kalev II

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 07:07 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Oct 2026 · 09:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
60.08%
Draw
17.50%
Away
22.42%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.9935
Log loss
1.4952

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v1
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 07:07 UTC
SHA-256
5d7be200c19aeba90feb09231ca5ca1d1690031acc78116183555269b3f2576c

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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