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Frozen pre-match forecast · #35113

VSK Århus VS Skive

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 07:02 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 11:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
42.97%
Draw
26.92%
Away
30.11%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.4884
Log loss
0.8447

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v1
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 07:02 UTC
SHA-256
cede3829f1dd2eb9dfb2195a8e76bbdaade9cb79d4ca29e6f276151a15680d7a

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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