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Frozen pre-match forecast · #30375

Turks and Caicos Islands VS Montserrat

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 01:01 UTC
Match kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
9.67%
Draw
13.87%
Away
76.46%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

0 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.0840
Log loss
0.2684

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 01:01 UTC
SHA-256
3058ccb0d3ab5927d6be0c57f7497f6bacfc730cf339997a257f1b37180be564

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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