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Frozen pre-match forecast · #30129

Farnham Town VS Cirencester Town

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
22 Sep 2026 · 05:58 UTC
Match kickoff
22 Sep 2026 · 18:45 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
60.07%
Draw
19.98%
Away
19.95%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 290-minute result
Brier score
1.0416
Log loss
1.6119

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
22 Sep 2026 · 05:58 UTC
SHA-256
55c186adccc23a5923bfddfa2a863296e038cedd6d043e31d9c12d71ee26581b

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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