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Frozen pre-match forecast · #28332

Vidar VS Mjondalen

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
22 Sep 2026 · 05:22 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
23.68%
Draw
21.61%
Away
54.71%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.3079
Log loss
0.6031

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
22 Sep 2026 · 05:22 UTC
SHA-256
c67f6019ac84ed162da6f2cb6f6df39215e5afba77dabbb76a8c34cd93299c29

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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