Skip to main content
← Forecast archive

Frozen pre-match forecast · #25167

Musa VS NJS

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
21 Sep 2026 · 05:29 UTC
Match kickoff
26 Sep 2026 · 15:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
38.91%
Draw
21.73%
Away
39.36%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

View every retained version of this fixture →

After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.5753
Log loss
0.9439

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
21 Sep 2026 · 05:29 UTC
SHA-256
be4f5d96e4f7c8d6ad65befcf223c7b534efd5b286aa9fec58887e8431b86f1a

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

Explore public calibration across archived forecasts →