Frozen pre-match forecast · #248837
Carmarthen Town VS Aberystwyth Town
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 07 Nov 2026 · 05:08 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 07 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 25.72%
- Draw
- 21.53%
- Away
- 52.75%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.3358
- Log loss
- 0.6396
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 07 Nov 2026 · 05:08 UTC
- SHA-256
- 0757413799d3e9856f0ebd5c4b1f4075cb2ebb94f4bd9ffc88e66d768b31d9a4
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.