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Frozen pre-match forecast · #243471

Utrecht VS NEC Nijmegen

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
05 Nov 2026 · 05:11 UTC
Match kickoff
08 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
40.15%
Draw
23.70%
Away
36.14%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.6252
Log loss
1.0177

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
05 Nov 2026 · 05:11 UTC
SHA-256
82dfbb7eac239513e24aa1b2d54f3e15aa44ac5ab937d86a0fccf0482e855709

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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