Frozen pre-match forecast · #242407
AD Marco 09 VS Paredes
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 05 Nov 2026 · 05:08 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 07 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 24.30%
- Draw
- 28.36%
- Away
- 47.35%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.4167
- Log loss
- 0.7477
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 05 Nov 2026 · 05:08 UTC
- SHA-256
- a2ed6566d3c2f4e8b8907966bd6fce7e78d092593474c29b2ec82cc61a0e52c5
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.