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Frozen pre-match forecast · #240016

FC Koln W VS RB Leipzig W

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
04 Nov 2026 · 05:11 UTC
Match kickoff
09 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
45.79%
Draw
24.10%
Away
30.11%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.4426
Log loss
0.7811

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
04 Nov 2026 · 05:11 UTC
SHA-256
25ead7367230aca7419c8c5750a4032360c5e9021760bab35485878fcb17906e

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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