Frozen pre-match forecast · #236933
Kaya W VS Melbourne City W
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 04 Nov 2026 · 05:02 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 04 Nov 2026 · 10:30 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 14.90%
- Draw
- 17.68%
- Away
- 67.42%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.1596
- Log loss
- 0.3942
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 04 Nov 2026 · 05:02 UTC
- SHA-256
- 1ad96a73393888074ee8b3b36225cb4eb92095a9a6b9f6b95d3f2d7aa6a301e6
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.