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Frozen pre-match forecast · #2367

Dren Vrhnika VS Primorje

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 05:31 UTC
Match kickoff
19 Sep 2026 · 14:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
42.29%
Draw
33.13%
Away
24.58%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.5032
Log loss
0.8606

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
16 Sep 2026 · 05:31 UTC
SHA-256
4493d6d310c24cb49ac9918d6275db7bcb78cd5acc3bad2d3410f695552c5ee2

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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