Frozen pre-match forecast · #232860
Águilas Doradas VS Fortaleza FC
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 02 Nov 2026 · 16:01 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 02 Nov 2026 · 21:05 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 49.28%
- Draw
- 26.74%
- Away
- 23.97%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.3862
- Log loss
- 0.7076
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 02 Nov 2026 · 16:01 UTC
- SHA-256
- 0506349952f19e6135b762eb1c1603d60cec4722ef67d0f2b64fd352d6bcb717
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.