Frozen pre-match forecast · #232641
Atletico Madrid VS Barcelona
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 02 Nov 2026 · 05:12 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 08 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 26.84%
- Draw
- 21.37%
- Away
- 51.79%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.3501
- Log loss
- 0.6580
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 02 Nov 2026 · 05:12 UTC
- SHA-256
- f8f2ac9d3604e266d39133083ba84382f0767dbe4b3394f9525962c2b3bf8a31
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.