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Frozen pre-match forecast · #229603

Barcelona VS Aston Villa

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
02 Nov 2026 · 05:04 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
76.83%
Draw
13.41%
Away
9.76%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.0812
Log loss
0.2636

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
02 Nov 2026 · 05:04 UTC
SHA-256
136831107346075aa11d17f4ed7be78aaebf27267f2b2d7b2c9f98009ba14d4c

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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