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Frozen pre-match forecast · #229480

Tegevajaro Miyazaki VS Tochigi City

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
02 Nov 2026 · 05:03 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Nov 2026 · 05:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
49.48%
Draw
23.90%
Away
26.62%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.3832
Log loss
0.7036

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
02 Nov 2026 · 05:03 UTC
SHA-256
dce4fdcddcf0bf130c3af1a1bfd58d88906c3633b4109e3b90a53ba7c1a4e1c5

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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