Frozen pre-match forecast · #229356
Mushuc Runa SC VS Manta FC
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 02 Nov 2026 · 05:03 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 03 Nov 2026 · 20:30 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 57.59%
- Draw
- 24.46%
- Away
- 17.95%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 1.0647
- Log loss
- 1.7176
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 02 Nov 2026 · 05:03 UTC
- SHA-256
- 39f690b562bcf049bf3e6775a6a5f6ccf6f8fe72fa9fe01b8c9f0c0dfb3090c8
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.