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Frozen pre-match forecast · #225298

Virtus Verona VS Milan II

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
01 Nov 2026 · 05:11 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
40.99%
Draw
26.20%
Away
32.81%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.6881
Log loss
1.1144

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
01 Nov 2026 · 05:11 UTC
SHA-256
d1ac2485fcff6ba6c1d8db1259f2f0c93625d806dc9b75b9eb238274eb8a7bb0

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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