Frozen pre-match forecast · #224570
Atenas VS Sarmiento de La Banda
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 01 Nov 2026 · 05:03 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 01 Nov 2026 · 22:15 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 49.56%
- Draw
- 29.57%
- Away
- 20.87%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.3854
- Log loss
- 0.7020
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 01 Nov 2026 · 05:03 UTC
- SHA-256
- b2f82033ce109a45b71d4c9f0f33df75bad8cc6a8c4ff9035b2f9bb12221bdeb
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.