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Frozen pre-match forecast · #222305

Diosgyori VTK VS Kecskeméti TE

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
31 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
Match kickoff
02 Nov 2026 · 18:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
35.81%
Draw
24.83%
Away
39.36%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.5576
Log loss
0.9324

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
31 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
SHA-256
ffb9bff5a2e550c0eebc46b6f9e4cb2d63453a6aac2f4299af489c99cee769b6

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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