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Frozen pre-match forecast · #222248

Sportist Svoge VS Ludogorets II

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
31 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
Match kickoff
02 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
42.43%
Draw
27.51%
Away
30.06%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.7959
Log loss
1.2906

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
31 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
SHA-256
8f63cb183c077b27208128e29a8edc40a868564bbe0d1be73fffe875b34e5fdc

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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