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Frozen pre-match forecast · #219338

Gendrim VS Kaédi

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
31 Oct 2026 · 02:01 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
50.02%
Draw
27.36%
Away
22.62%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.3758
Log loss
0.6927

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
31 Oct 2026 · 02:01 UTC
SHA-256
c25f866dcc14fc05092af12f78932a44e7fb816e91996efbae6144f8e0e1c37a

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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