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Frozen pre-match forecast · #21531

Surkhon VS Kokand-1912

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
20 Sep 2026 · 05:26 UTC
Match kickoff
20 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
42.16%
Draw
22.29%
Away
35.55%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.5106
Log loss
0.8637

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
20 Sep 2026 · 05:26 UTC
SHA-256
1f2ba587a5f3ecea21712fa3ed3ac3eb53184930e49c8fb449420d365b34f4d5

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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