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Frozen pre-match forecast · #214178

Seattle Reign FC VS Orlando Pride W

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
29 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Nov 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
51.58%
Draw
23.34%
Away
25.09%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.3519
Log loss
0.6621

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
29 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
SHA-256
5ccaaa1821f9addd0df9fd4dd0624feb4a38dbd4cbe3d3a45786eb45223913cb

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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