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Frozen pre-match forecast · #213737

Baltika VS Akron

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
29 Oct 2026 · 05:09 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
54.59%
Draw
25.77%
Away
19.64%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.3112
Log loss
0.6053

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
29 Oct 2026 · 05:09 UTC
SHA-256
fbce61f9d11aadcf934efaf34837a5c479943ef01bcbf2a08e4623d7f6484176

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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