Frozen pre-match forecast · #21309
Jerez VS Castuera
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 20 Sep 2026 · 05:21 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 20 Sep 2026 · 17:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 42.19%
- Draw
- 43.14%
- Away
- 14.67%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 1.0922
- Log loss
- 1.9194
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- legacy
- Captured at
- 20 Sep 2026 · 05:21 UTC
- SHA-256
- 6418baf77d13eb4976f054a5aad5ab3c32d66bee9c6c6bc2f7594625b5af288b
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.