Frozen pre-match forecast · #206226
Mansfield Town VS Chesterfield
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 27 Oct 2026 · 20:01 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 10 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 44.76%
- Draw
- 21.70%
- Away
- 33.54%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.6891
- Log loss
- 1.0924
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
Get the full match analysis
Explore additional markets, team probability history and opponent-adjusted form. Historical coverage varies by match.
About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 27 Oct 2026 · 20:01 UTC
- SHA-256
- a5156edb2dd053643c1a6102ae83173cbe8d3e26e15b1a3a64400c2486314247
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.