Frozen pre-match forecast · #201176
Serrano PE VS Jaguaré
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 26 Oct 2026 · 05:12 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 01 Nov 2026 · 18:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 44.78%
- Draw
- 25.77%
- Away
- 29.45%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.8383
- Log loss
- 1.3560
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
Get the full match analysis
Explore additional markets, team probability history and opponent-adjusted form. Historical coverage varies by match.
About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 26 Oct 2026 · 05:12 UTC
- SHA-256
- fd49af5ab66f9059ff45cb2a1814216ac510d5106cff315b78f7381547c5a85b
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.