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Frozen pre-match forecast · #200785

Werder Bremen III VS Woltmershausen

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
26 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
55.90%
Draw
19.37%
Away
24.73%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 290-minute result
Brier score
1.0238
Log loss
1.6414

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
26 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
SHA-256
60627f5e668c01653affff56990a9efc4fce90df9893ea1fa38ee7d542ec0902

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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