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Frozen pre-match forecast · #200692

Solbiatese VS Oltrepò

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
26 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
51.11%
Draw
27.74%
Away
21.15%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

4 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.3607
Log loss
0.6712

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
26 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
SHA-256
ed7c2fa59bfc982e06c4ee5b02219473cbe229d838521fdf11c28b9c0a021209

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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