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Frozen pre-match forecast · #19684

Čapljina VS Tomislav

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
19 Sep 2026 · 14:02 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
39.93%
Draw
33.23%
Away
26.83%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

4 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.5432
Log loss
0.9179

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
19 Sep 2026 · 14:02 UTC
SHA-256
05c1c619a495b5c851f23dee9c7193bcd682c545a2de7aa9e9c888c187290ae2

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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