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Frozen pre-match forecast · #19240

EM Huanuni VS Libertad

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
19 Sep 2026 · 06:04 UTC
Match kickoff
19 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
45.48%
Draw
34.14%
Away
20.38%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

5 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.4553
Log loss
0.7879

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
19 Sep 2026 · 06:04 UTC
SHA-256
e033827f09e2f8b3de116713eb7a758392c06f2beaca8b70096c163b14f0551b

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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