Frozen pre-match forecast · #181145
Europa VS Lynx
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 23 Oct 2026 · 05:04 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 23 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 64.56%
- Draw
- 20.18%
- Away
- 15.26%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.1896
- Log loss
- 0.4376
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 23 Oct 2026 · 05:04 UTC
- SHA-256
- d79c23d01fdcfa6c96970f073242b00498a0cc187bf67053db1668033bf9086a
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.