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Frozen pre-match forecast · #178603

Ganshoren VS Aywaille

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
22 Oct 2026 · 05:10 UTC
Match kickoff
25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
80.07%
Draw
13.58%
Away
6.35%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.0622
Log loss
0.2223

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
22 Oct 2026 · 05:10 UTC
SHA-256
5a0dd124e0d68b487a1fe9d7b1e395c51925b9e217bb5e60f1da85e557ef58c4

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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