Frozen pre-match forecast · #172967
Simba VS Mbeya City
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 21 Oct 2026 · 05:14 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 24 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC
- Record status
- Forecast retained
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 81.63%
- Draw
- 14.35%
- Away
- 4.02%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
Waiting for the final result
This forecast is already retained. Grading appears once a final regulation score is confirmed.
Get the full match analysis
Explore additional markets, team probability history and opponent-adjusted form. Historical coverage varies by match.
About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 21 Oct 2026 · 05:14 UTC
- SHA-256
- 350045dc5ab262931b44b66d9b5f9d5249d02b45d7d39fc976b4ff35e2e9af9e
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.