Frozen pre-match forecast · #172230
Bolton VS Middlesbrough
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 21 Oct 2026 · 05:08 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 23 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 20.63%
- Draw
- 21.37%
- Away
- 58.00%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.2646
- Log loss
- 0.5447
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 21 Oct 2026 · 05:08 UTC
- SHA-256
- 0a8f513160486ec5eaf009d9987c62f0a215e82500bb58535550a5e74f8ff006
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.