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Frozen pre-match forecast · #16698

Thame United VS Exmouth

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
19 Sep 2026 · 05:20 UTC
Match kickoff
19 Sep 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
37.39%
Draw
33.23%
Away
29.38%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.6719
Log loss
1.1017

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
19 Sep 2026 · 05:20 UTC
SHA-256
51a9769ea5bd3777f2e9f3a8368ef716bf31b69e083d6411e98f61844ca70850

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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