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Frozen pre-match forecast · #166844

Encarnación VS General Caballero

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
19 Oct 2026 · 05:16 UTC
Match kickoff
19 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
13.91%
Draw
20.34%
Away
65.75%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 290-minute result
Brier score
1.2148
Log loss
1.9726

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
19 Oct 2026 · 05:16 UTC
SHA-256
847fa57e32ac960f12d4e0c48cb87c586d0063b38c07ffbc6c040aaa36b77f30

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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