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Frozen pre-match forecast · #162321

Werder Bremen III VS Woltmershausen

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
18 Oct 2026 · 14:03 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
54.92%
Draw
19.51%
Away
25.57%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 290-minute result
Brier score
1.0149
Log loss
1.6342

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
18 Oct 2026 · 14:03 UTC
SHA-256
58b870f483b2c2fec8f58512bfb5af234208ae93343a6b1da0a471afb08b5e15

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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