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Frozen pre-match forecast · #158367

Sanremese VS Sestri Levante

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
18 Oct 2026 · 05:07 UTC
Match kickoff
18 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
47.61%
Draw
27.32%
Away
25.07%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.4120
Log loss
0.7421

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
18 Oct 2026 · 05:07 UTC
SHA-256
3e93b6b4b8d4e22a7ccf7b4b8671f9b512f19075a3c37ad3743a96c0fd61a753

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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