Frozen pre-match forecast · #157727
Al-Gharafa VS Al-Rayyan SC
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 18 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 18 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 22.48%
- Draw
- 22.09%
- Away
- 55.43%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.9648
- Log loss
- 1.5100
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 18 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
- SHA-256
- abfef03263643c1c5c2f301018ff8dd7d4907c07f03c2b67a28e9ba78e2591bd
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.