Frozen pre-match forecast · #154406
Moralo VS Castuera
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 17 Oct 2026 · 05:12 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 18 Oct 2026 · 10:30 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 56.13%
- Draw
- 24.28%
- Away
- 19.59%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.2898
- Log loss
- 0.5775
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 17 Oct 2026 · 05:12 UTC
- SHA-256
- 380ed779792d44dfda72f9c09f11996f5ed86180cd7203e98f3209cbf4a8a747
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.