Frozen pre-match forecast · #15313
Aurora VS Marquense
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 18 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 19 Sep 2026 · 21:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 34.68%
- Draw
- 31.61%
- Away
- 33.71%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.6402
- Log loss
- 1.0590
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- legacy
- Captured at
- 18 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UTC
- SHA-256
- 9840ece74e2fb98a2b5872e9f8294445e23677c54b5d0159ee06a350f9ae9da5
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.