Frozen pre-match forecast · #149787
Moralo VS Castuera
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 16 Oct 2026 · 05:14 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 18 Oct 2026 · 10:30 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 56.13%
- Draw
- 24.28%
- Away
- 19.59%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.2898
- Log loss
- 0.5775
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 16 Oct 2026 · 05:14 UTC
- SHA-256
- ed957006e35a332f82c70c79d5676203294551a8c8a23bfd186341f40f6a1c61
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.