Frozen pre-match forecast · #149512
Progres Niederkorn VS UN Kaerjeng 97
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 16 Oct 2026 · 05:13 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 17 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 40.03%
- Draw
- 23.94%
- Away
- 36.04%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.6266
- Log loss
- 1.0206
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 16 Oct 2026 · 05:13 UTC
- SHA-256
- 0a96c4a01c4241a5d6b46c8ca19eb4f3a4c251bf6ac2e88f89694465defa6349
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.