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Frozen pre-match forecast · #141740

Al Gottah VS Al Sahel

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
14 Oct 2026 · 14:01 UTC
Match kickoff
28 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
36.64%
Draw
25.01%
Away
38.35%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

0 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.5769
Log loss
0.9584

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
14 Oct 2026 · 14:01 UTC
SHA-256
97fb32886108bd516b3eba21961c13fa5932e4f5dc4b14bcf76ff890e05918e4

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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