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Frozen pre-match forecast · #138220

Al Kahrabaa VS Al Talaba

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
14 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
Match kickoff
16 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
32.68%
Draw
28.65%
Away
38.67%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

0 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.5650
Log loss
0.9501

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
14 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
SHA-256
a05bddce9cd72b00fc0d659717c29f78c1320272d740b4c33d0a4ac98cfa5f63

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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